I foresee keeping Germany's nuclear power plants running for at least another decade past their current phase out date. In 2002, the then-ruling SPD-Greens coalition passed a law that said all of Germany's nuclear power plants were due to go off line by 2022. On technical grounds, an additional 10 to 15 years is reasonable.
Subject to an independent consultants' report set to be published this week, such a time frame would ensure Germany's energy needs are met as the country transitions to renewable energy sources. Energy prices would remain under control and goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions would be reached with an extra 10 to 15 years of nuclear power.
I have to consider, as head of the German government and as a physicist, how we integrate safety as the overriding principle of nuclear energy. Modern nuclear technology has made nuclear reactors completely safe. Hoi polloi fear that a nuclear reactor might explode! Basil Venitis asserts this is impossible! Reactor grade uranium is 5% U-235 that produces slow chain reaction. In order to get to bomb grade uranium, the kind that will explode with an instantaneous chain reaction, uranium must be enriched to 90% U-235. With energy prices so high, nuclear reactors bring windfall profits!
On the other hand, Venitis notes a reactor can melt down. This is what happened at Three Mile Island. A valve stuck open and a series of mistakes led the operators to think the core was overflowing when it was actually short of cooling water. They further drained the core and about a third of the core melted from the excess heat. Americans were at shock and awe, because they were not sure what was happening. At the end, the melted fuel stayed within the reactor vessel.
Critics had predicted a China syndrome where the molten core would melt down into the earth where it would hit groundwater, causing a steam explosion that would spray radioactive material across a huge area. Three Mile Island was an industrial accident, but no one was injured.
Venitis, twitter.com/Venitis, points out this was not the case at Chernobyl, where a cheap Soviet design did not provide a concrete containment structure around the reactor vessel. A stupid mistake set fire to the carbon moderator, which controls the flow of neutrons. The result was a four-day fire that spewed radioactive debris around the world. More fallout fell on Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, from Chernobyl than from Three Mile Island!
Nuclear power is risky for investors, because it ties up more capital for longer periods of time than its main competitor, natural-gas-fired generation. Nuclear power makes economic sense only if natural gas prices are very high. Then, over time, the high initial costs of nuclear power would be offset by nuclear power's lower fuel costs. Renewable energies should supply half of all energy needs by 2050 and that nuclear and coal power would continue until supplies could be met entirely by clean energy.
The debate over extending the running time of Germany's nuclear plants has sparked a deep debate in the German parliament. Any extension would come in a form that circumvented Germany's upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat. Doubts have been raised by the interior and justice ministries that an extension of more than 10 years could be illegal if it were not approved by the Bundesrat, which made up of the governments of Germany's 16 states. Germany has 17 nuclear power plants, but it is not certain how many would be given extensions if one is granted. A poll published on Friday found that 56 percent of Germans are against keeping nuclear power plants beyond 2021.
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